India is the largest buyer of gold in the world. Roughly 700
tonnes or about 33% of the total gold mined in the world is consumed in India.
That makes India the largest trader of gold.
The fundamental reasons for buying gold jewellery are rooted
in Indian culture especially during weddings. Lot of modification has happened
to our traditions but gold purchase on the occasion of wedding has not changed much.
Though the newer generation is not too fond of wearing or flaunting gold jewellery,
the demand for gold jewellery has not gone down. We end up buying 950 tonnes of
gold every year.
Why should the government worry when we are actually saving
and creating wealth as we buy gold?
At the individual
level, it seems to be highly beneficial in buying gold but there are serious consequences
at the national level. For us to
understand this we need to get into a bit of detailing. The top five producersof gold in the world are China, USA, Australia, South Africa and Russian
Federation. India does not produce much
of the gold consumed. That means we need to buy gold from these countries. Gold
nearly constitutes 12% of the total imports and comes only next to crude and
capital good. This causes problems in forex and you wonder what the problem is.
When we import gold we need to pay in foreign exchange and we roughly require
USD 60 billion worth of dollars. This directly affects the value of rupee
negatively and thus creating further gold prices raises especially petrol and
diesel. Another reason why gold may not be great to the economy is its
unproductive nature. Gold does nothing but remain idle in safes or bank vaults.
Other financial instruments like fixed deposits, investment policies, shares,
bonds etc is a great source of productive funds for corporate and government
bodies, creating positive impact on the economy. This is making the government skittish.
Government wants to discourage import of gold and hence have recently hiked the
import duty. We believe this might not create too much impact on the demand as
people might absorb the price rise and may even end up assuming to have created
wealth. Increase in import duty may encourage smuggling and black economy. If
the finance minister openly declares that the import duty will be brought down
at a particular date, then the investors may refrain from investing in gold
till that period.